The aim of the article is to analyze the current state and prospects for the development of cashless payments in Poland. The study uses empirical data, in particular statistics from the National Bank of Poland, to identify trends and estimate forecasts for selected indicators illustrating the dynamics of non-cash transactions. As part of the analysis, trends and forecasts for 2020-2022 were estimated for the following variables: the number of debit and credit cards in circulation on a quarterly basis (1999-2019), divided into two sub-periods: up to 2009 and from 2010 onward, the value of transactions carried out with payment cards (1999-2019), including a forecast up to 2022, the value of ATM withdrawals in Poland (2004-2019) and abroad (2004-2019), including forecasts for 2020-2022. The application of econometric tools in the analysis makes it possible to highlight a research gap in the field of quantitative modeling of processes related to the development of cashless payments — an area still insufficiently explored in the literature. The results confirm the dynamic and systematic growth of cashless payments in Poland, accompanied by a simultaneous decline in the dynamics of cash transactions. The analysis is based on the estimation of trends and forecasts for selected indicators for 2020-2022, which enables a comparison of model predictions with currently available empirical data. This, in turn, allows for the verification of forecasting assumptions and the assessment of the pace of development of cashless payments in Poland. The article serves as a starting point for further research on the development of non-cash payments in Poland, especially in the context of applying quantitative methods that support trend identification and forecast formulation. Thanks to the availability of actual statistical data for the years 2020-2022, it is now possible to empirically verify the validity of assumptions and the accuracy of forecasting models, which significantly enhances the cognitive value of the conducted analyses. The article analyzes the current state and prospects of cashless payments in Poland using empirical data, particularly statistics from the National Bank of Poland. The study identifies trends and produces forecasts for 2020-2022 across several indicators: the number of debit and credit cards in circulation (1999-2019), the value of card transactions (1999-2019, with projections to 2022), and ATM withdrawals in Poland and abroad (2004-2019, with forecasts to 2022). By applying econometric methods, the research highlights a gap in quantitative modeling of processes related to cashless payments, a field still underexplored in the literature. The findings confirm dynamic growth in non-cash transactions alongside a decline in cash-based operations. Comparing model predictions with observed data for 2020–2022 allows for the verification of assumptions and the assessment of Poland’s payment trends. The study serves as a foundation for further research, particularly in advancing quantitative approaches to forecasting cashless payment development. 

non-cash transactions, electronic payments, forecasting, Poland, payment system