Journal
УКР   ENG
Socio-Economic Problems
of the Modern Period of Ukraine
   



Collection SEPSPU -- sep2022.06.048

Repository of Institute of Regional Research UDC 314.18:332.021:316.485.26; JEL J11, R23, R58, H56
Teslyuk, R. (2022). Rehional'nyy vymir demohrafichnoyi stiykosti Ukrayiny v umovakh viyny [Regional dimension of demographic sustainability of Ukraine in the war conditions]. In Sotsial'no-ekonomichni problemy suchasnoho periodu Ukrayiny [Socio-Economic Problems of the Modern Period of Ukraine]: Vol. 158 (6) (pp. 48-60). DOI: https://doi.org/10.36818/2071-4653-2022-6-7. [in Ukrainian].
Sources: 38

Authors



Teslyuk Roman Tadeyovych

Ph.D. of Geography, Senior Researcher

Senior Researcher of the Department of problems of social and humanitarian development of the regions of the Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of NAS of Ukraine; Senior Researcher of the National Museum of the Holodomor-Genocide

Contacts: r.teslyuk@gmail.com, (032)297-38-91, (099)447-0681, (097)500-9032

Webpages:

Resume

The main features of the Ukraine’s demographic development before the full-scale invasion of Russia on 24.02.2022 have been identified: a constant significant reduction in the population number since 1993, caused primarily by a drop in the birth rate; intensive migration flows dominated by labor emigration; the appearance 1.5 million of internally displaced persons (IDP) since 2014; population aging; spread of depopulation from the east and northeast to the central regions of the country. It is estimated that the existing population of all of Ukraine at the beginning of 2022 was 39.6-40.1 million people, and without the territories occupied in 2014 – 33.5-34 million. The Russian-Ukrainian war became the main factor in the catastrophic aggravation of the demographic crisis in Ukraine and its regions. The war caused tens of thousands of deaths in Ukraine (civilian and military casualties), more than 14 million forced migrants, significant deformations of population structures: demo-reproductive, marriage-family, socio-economic, language-national, confessional, psycho-mental, and others. In addition to an increase in mortality and a decrease in the birth rate, the demographic consequences of the war are significant migration losses, deterioration of health and reduced life expectancy, decrease in economic activity, aggravation risk of social problems of veterans and IDPs reintegration. A demographic macro-zoning scheme has been developed, the criteria of which are the peculiarities of the course of military operations in certain territories, different periods of temporary occupation of Ukrainian territories, the structure of the population of the regions and its dynamics during wartime, the volume of forced migration. The main problems of the demographic development in the selected 5 macro-regions are formulated. The prospects of post-war demographic development and the main directions of socio-demographic policy, which will contribute to strengthening the demographic sustainability in Ukraine, are determined. The main ones are the demographic orientation of state and regional strategies and programs, the creation of conditions for the rapid return of forced migrants from abroad, the promotion of birth rates, the strengthening of the family institution, the socialization and social integration of war veterans, ensuring the competitiveness of older age groups in the labor market.

Keywords:

demographic sustainability, demographic crisis, demographic catastrophe, demographic dimension of genocide, forced migration, demographic macro-zoning, socio-demographic policy

References

    
  1. Pro zatverdzhennya Stratehiyi demohrafichnoho rozvytku v period do 2015 roku [On the approval of the Demographic Development Strategy in the period up to 2015] (2006). Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, adopted on 2006, Jun 24, 879. Legislation of Ukraine: Website. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/879-2006-%D0%BF#Text [in Ukrainian].
  2. Pro Tsili staloho rozvytku Ukrayiny na period do 2030 roku [About the Sustainable Development Goals of Ukraine for the period up to 2030] (2019). Decree of the President of Ukraine, adopted on 2019, Sep 30, 722/2019. Legislation of Ukraine: Website. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/722/2019#Text [in Ukrainian].
  3. Stratehiya lyuds’koho rozvytku [Human development strategy] (2021). Decree of the President of Ukraine, adopted on 2021, Jun 2, 225/2021. President of Ukraine: Website. Retrieved from https://www.president.gov.ua/storage/j-files-storage/01/00/93/9f02e8ff2f2f2ba9764a317dfe21f6b3_1622646374.doc [in Ukrainian].
  4. Pro skhvalennya Stratehiyi derzhavnoyi mihratsiynoyi polityky Ukrayiny na period do 2025 roku [On the approval of the State Migration Policy Strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2025] (2017). Law of Ukraine, adopted on 2017, Jul 12, 482. Legislation of Ukraine: Website. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/482-2017-%D1%80#Text [in Ukrainian].
  5. Pro zatverdzhennya Derzhavnoyi stratehiyi rehional’noho rozvytku na 2021-2027 roky [On the approval of the State Regional Development Strategy for 2021-2027] (2020). Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers, adopted on 2020, Aug 5, 695. Legislation of Ukraine: Website. Retrieved from https://www.kmu.gov.ua/diyalnist/regionalna-politika/strategichne-planuvannya-regionalnogo-rozvitku/derzhavna-strategiya-regionalnogo-rozvitku-na-2021-2027-roki-ta-plan-zahodiv-z-yiyi-realizaciyi [in Ukrainian].
  6. Pro zasady derzhavnoyi rehional’noyi polityky [On the principles of state regional policy] (2015). Law of Ukraine, adopted on 2015, Feb 5, 156-VIII. Legislation of Ukraine: Website. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/156-19#Text [in Ukrainian].
  7. Pro vnesennya zmin do deyakykh zakonodavchykh aktiv Ukrayiny shchodo zasad derzhavnoyi rehional’noyi polityky ta polityky vidnovlennya rehioniv i terytoriy [On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine Regarding the Basics of State Regional Policy and the Policy of Restoration of Regions and Territories] (2022).). Law of Ukraine, adopted on 2022, Aug 7, 2389-IX. Legislation of Ukraine: Website. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2389-20#Text [in Ukrainian].
  8. Lotka, A. J. (1968). Chapter I. The concept of a stable population. In The concept of a stable population – application to the study of populations of countries with incomplete demographic statistics. United Nations. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/manuals/model/stablepopulation/chap1.pdf.
  9. Lutz, W., Prskawetz, A., & Sanderson, W. C. (Eds.) (2002). Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis. New York: Population Council.
  10. Sleebos, J. E. (2003). Low fertility rates in OECD countries – facts and policy responses. In OECD social, employment and migration working papers, 15. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/els/emp/16587241.pdf
  11. Mamolo, M., & Billari, F. (2003). Fertility rate in Europe in 1960-1999: testing the convergence hypothesis. In European Integration: Real and Financial Aspects: Proceedings of the Second Annual Meeting of the European Economic and Financial Society (EEFS). Bologna University, 14-16 May 2003.
  12. Roca, M., & Leitão, N. (2005). Demographic Sustainability in Portugal. Towards a Typology. In Proceedings of the 14th European Colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography (pp. 183-184). Tomar.
  13. Liddle, B. (2002). Demographic dynamics and sustainability: insights from an integrated, multi-country simulation model. MPIDR Working Paper WP, 39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-039
  14. Roca, Z., & Roca, M. (2014). Demographic sustainability and development in Portugal. Acta geographica Bosnia et Hercegovina, 2, 21-28. Retrieved from https://www.geoubih.ba/publications/Acta2/Article-Z.%20Roka,Maria%20de%20Nazar%C3%A9%20Oliveira%20Roca.pdf
  15. Kozlovskyy, S. V., Mazur, H. F., & Nepytalyuk, A. V. (2019). Demohrafichna stiykist’ suspil’stva yak osnova ekonomichnoho rozvytku [Demographic stability of society as the basis of economic development]. Ekonomika ta derzhava – Economy and the state, 10, 14-19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6806.2019.10.14 [in Ukrainian].
  16. Nepytalyuk, A. (2018). Demohrafichna stiykist' ta ekonomichne zrostannya: teoriya ta metodolohiya [Demographic sustainability and economic growth: theory and methodology]. Visnyk Kyyivs’koho natsional’noho torhovel’no-ekonomichnoho universytetu – Herald of Kyiv national university of trade and economics, 122(6), 52-66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31617/visnik.knute.2018(122)05 [in Ukrainian].
  17. Libanova, E. M. (Ed.) (2021). Lyuds’kyy rozvytok v Ukrayini. Priorytety natsional’noyi polityky minimizatsiyi asymetriyi ukrayins’koho rynku pratsi [Human development in Ukraine. Priorities of the national policy of minimizing the asymmetry of the Ukrainian labor market]. Kyiv: Academic periodical. [in Ukrainian].
  18. Hladun, O. M. (Ed.) (2020). Naselennya Ukrayiny. Demohrafichni tendentsiyi v Ukrayini u 2002-2019 rr. [Population of Ukraine. Demographic trends in Ukraine in 2002-2019]. Kyiv: Academic periodical. [in Ukrainian].
  19. Libanova, E. M. (Ed.) (2020). Lyuds’kyy rozvytok v Ukrayini: priorytety rozvytku sil’s’kykh poselen’ u konteksti detsentralizatsiyi upravlinnya [Human development in Ukraine: priorities for the development of rural settlements in the context of decentralization of management]. Kyiv: Academic periodical. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/akademperiodyka.412.354 [in Ukrainian].
  20. Hladun, O. M. (Ed.) (2019). Naselennya Ukrayiny. Demohrafichnyy vymir yakosti zhyttya [Population of Ukraine. Demographic dimension of quality of life]. Kyiv: Academic periodical. [in Ukrainian].
  21. Naselennya Ukrayiny [Population of Ukraine ] (2022). State Statistics Service of Ukraine: Website. Retrieved from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
  22. Ukrayins’ke studentstvo v Pol’shchi: polityky zaluchennya, intehratsiyi ta motyvatsiya i plany studentstva [Ukrainian studentship in Poland: policies of involvement, integration and motivation and studentship plans] (2018, Nov 3). Cedos: Website. Retrieved from https://cedos.org.ua/uk/articles/ukrainski-studenty-v-polshchi-polityky-zaluchennia-intehratsii-ta-motyvatsiia-i-plany-studentiv [in Ukrainian].
  23. Trudova mihratsiya: skil’ky ukrayintsiv pratsyuvaly za kordonom v 2019-2021 rokakh [Labor migration: how many Ukrainians worked abroad in 2019-2021] (2021, Mar 18). Word and deed: Website. Retrieved from https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2021/03/18/infografika/suspilstvo/trudova-mihracziya-skilky-ukrayincziv-pracyuvaly-kordonom-2019-2021-rokax [in Ukrainian].
  24. VPO. Sotsial’nyy zakhyst vnutrishn’o peremishchenykh osib [IDPs. Social protection of internally displaced persons] (2022). National Social Service of Ukraine: Website. Retrieved from https://nssu.gov.ua/vpo [in Ukrainian].
  25. OON pidrakhuvala kil’kist’ zhertv boyovykh diy na Donbasi [The UN counted the number of victims of hostilities in Donbas] (2021, Feb 19). Radio Svoboda: Website. Retrieved from https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-oon-kst-gertv-boyovyh-donbas/31110937.html [in Ukrainian].
  26. Dubilet oprylyudnyv rezul’taty vseukrayins’koho perepysu naselennya [Dubilet published the results of the all-Ukrainian population census] (2020, Jan 23). Liga Zakon: Website. Retrieved from https://biz.ligazakon.net/news/192576_dublet-oprilyudniv-rezultati-vseukranskogo-perepisu-naselennya [in Ukrainian].
  27. Libanova, E. M. (Ed.) (2006). Kompleksnyy demohrafichnyy prohnoz Ukrayiny na period do 2050 r. [Complex demographic forecast of Ukraine for the period until 2050]. Kyiv: Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms. Retrieved from http://db.ukrcensus.gov.ua/PXWEB2007/ukr/analis/index.asp [in Ukrainian].
  28. Ukrayina. Operatyvne zvedennya [Ukraine. Situation Report]. (2022, Dec 19). UNOCHA: Website. Retrieved from https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/ukraine [in Ukrainian].
  29. Kravets, R. (2022, May 2). Vadym Boychenko: Shcho mozhe buty hirshe pekla? A vono ye, i tsya fortetsya nazyvayetsya «Azovstal’» [Vadym Boychenko: What could be worse than hell? And it exists, and this fortress is called «Azovstal»] (2022). Ukrainian Pravda: Website. Retrieved from https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2022/05/2/7343500 [in Ukrainian].
  30. Ukraine Refugee Situation (2022). UNHCR: Website. Retrieved from https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine
  31. Zvit pro povernennya v Ukrayini (zhovten’ 2022 roku) [Report on return to Ukraine (October 2022)] (2022). IOM: Website. Retrieved from https://displacement.iom.int/reports/ukraine-returns-report-october-2022 [in Ukrainian].
  32. Zvit pro vnutrishnye peremishchennya v Ukrayini. Opytuvannya zahal’noho naselennya. Raund 11. 25 lystopada – 5 hrudnya 2022 roku [Report on internal displacement in Ukraine. Survey of the general population. Round 11. November 25 – December 5, 2022] (2022). IOM: Website. Retrieved from https://displacement.iom.int/reports/ukraina-zvit-pro-vnutrishne-peremischennya-v-ukraini-opituvannya-zagalnogo-naselennya-raund [in Ukrainian].
  33. Zvit pro vnutrishnye peremishchennya v Ukrayini. Opytuvannya zahal’noho naselennya. Raund 10. 27 zhovtnya 2022 roku [Report on internal displacement in Ukraine. Survey of the general population. Round 10. October 27, 2022] (2022). IOM: Website. Retrieved from https://displacement.iom.int/reports/ukraine-internal-displacement-report-general-population-survey-round-10-17-27-october-2022 [in Ukrainian].
  34. Ukrayina – Zvit pro peremishchennya – Zvit po Bazoviy Otsintsi Terytoriyi (Rayonnyy riven') – 18 Tur (28 lystopada – 11 hrudnya 2022 roku) [Ukraine – Displacement Report – Baseline Area Assessment Report (District Level) – 18th Round (November 28 – December 11, 2022)] (2022). IOM: Website. Retrieved from https://displacement.iom.int/reports/ukraine-displacement-report-area-baseline-report-raion-level-round-18-28-nov-11-dec-2022 [in Ukrainian].
  35. Shchonaymenshe 5 mln ukrayintsiv vtratyly robotu cherez viynu – Minekonomiky [At least 5 million Ukrainians lost their jobs because of the war – Ministry of Economy] (2022, Nov 20). Ukrinform: Website. Retrieved from https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-other_news/3618491-sonajmense-5-mln-ukrainciv-vtratili-robotu-cerez-vijnu-minekonomiki.html [in Ukrainian].
  36. Bazova otsinka terytoriyi. Pidsumky 16 turu. 31 zhovtnya – 11 lystopada 2022 [Basic assessment of the territory. Results of the 16th round. October 31 – November 11, 2022] (2022). IOM: Website. Retrieved from https://displacement.iom.int/reports/ukraine-displacement-report-area-baseline-report-raion-level-round-16-october-31st-november [in Ukrainian].
  37. Mapa viyny v Ukrayini [Map of the war in Ukraine] (2022, Dec 1). Deep State Map: Website. Retrieved from https://deepstatemap.live/#7/48.611/35.596 [in Ukrainian].
  38. Letyak, V. (2022, Aug 25). U Krymu nezakonno perebuvayut’ do 800 tys. Rosiyan – Tasheva [Up to 800,000 Russians are illegally staying in Crimea – Tasheva]. Facts: Website. Retrieved from https://fakty.com.ua/ua/ukraine/20220825-u-krymu-nezakonno-perebuvayut-do-800-tys-rosiyan-tasheva/ [in Ukrainian].


Web-master P. Popadyuk