Journal
УКР   ENG
Socio-Economic Problems
of the Modern Period of Ukraine
   



Collection SEPSPU -- sep2026.02.076

Repository of Institute of Regional Research UDC 339.56:338.43; JEL Q11, Q17, Q18, F14, F62
Zvarych, R. Ye., & Pavlyshyn, I. V. (2026). Volatyl'nist' ta synkhronizatsiya svitovykh ahroprodovol'chykh rynkiv: ryzyky dlya Ukrayiny [Volatility and synchronization of global agro-food markets: Risks for Ukraine]. In Sotsial'no-ekonomichni problemy suchasnoho periodu Ukrayiny [Socio-Economic Problems of the Modern Period of Ukraine]: Vol. 178 (2) (pp. 76-82). DOI: https://doi.org/10.36818/2071-4653-2026-2-9 [in Ukrainian].
Sources: 16

Authors



Zvarych Roman Yevhenovych

Doctor of Economics, Professor

Head of the Department of international economic relations of the Educational and scientific institute of international economic relations named after B. D. Havrylyshyn of the Western Ukrainian National University

Contacts: romazvarych@yahoo.com, r.zvarych@tneu.edu.ua

Webpages:



Pavlyshyn Ihor Volodymyrovych

Postgraduate of the Department of international economic relations of the Educational and scientific institute of international economic relations named after B. D. Havrylyshyn of the Western Ukrainian National University

Contacts: agrowestfield@gmail.com

Webpages:

Resume

The increasing volatility of world food prices and the growing synchronization across individual segments of the agro-food market have become defining trends in the development of the global economy in the 21st century. These processes heighten the vulnerability of national economies to external shocks and necessitate in-depth research into the mechanisms of formation and transmission of price fluctuations within the global agro-food system. This article examines the dynamics of volatility and the processes of synchronization in global agro-food markets amid heightened global economic, energy, and geopolitical instability. The purpose of the research is to identify long-term trends in the evolution of world food price volatility, assess the level of interdependence among the main segments of the agro-food market, and determine the associated risks for Ukraine. The research results confirm a persistent tendency toward increased volatility in global agro-food markets during periods of global crises. Three main clusters of heightened price instability are identified: the food and financial crises of 2007-2011, the post-commodity correction of 2014-2015, and the crisis period of 2020-2022, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, energy shocks, and Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. The article shows that vegetable oils are the most volatile segment of the global food market, having recorded historically high levels of price variability in the 2020s. It proves that the oil market has become one of the key drivers of fluctuations in the global food price index due to the high concentration of world production and exports, as well as its close linkage with energy markets. Analysis of anomalous price episodes confirms the decisive influence of geopolitical events on the formation of global food shocks, particularly in 2022. Correlation analysis reveals a significant strengthening of synchronization between individual commodity groups. The interdependence between food commodity sub-indices increased substantially over the study period, indicating the formation of a more integrated and externally sensitive global agro-food system. The growing role of common drivers of price dynamics – energy sources, logistics, financial flows, and market expectations – confirms the deepening processes of financialization in agro-food markets. The article concludes that volatility and synchronization are key characteristics of contemporary global agro-food markets and significantly affect the economic security of food-exporting countries. For Ukraine, this creates both risks to food security, foreign trade, and macroeconomic stability, and opportunities for export development and deeper participation in global agro-food value chains. The rise in global instability requires the diversification of export destinations, the development of domestic processing, and the implementation of effective price risk management mechanisms to strengthen the competitiveness and resilience of the Ukrainian economy amid long-term global transformations.

Keywords:

agro-food markets; price volatility; value chains; international trade; exports; integration; globalization

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