UDC 330.3:336:519.86; JEL C02, G21
Kvasniy, M. (2018). Analiz ta osoblyvosti dynamiky byudzhetu Ukrayiny v umovakh transformatsiynykh zmin [Analysis and features of dynamics of the budget of Ukraine in conditions of transformation changes]. In Sotsial'no-ekonomichni problemy suchasnoho periodu Ukrayiny [Socio-Economic Problems of the Modern Period of Ukraine]: Vol. 130 (2) (pp. 19-24). Retrieved from http://ird.gov.ua/sep/doi/sep2018.02.024. [in Ukrainian].
Sources: 10

Authors



Kvasniy Mariya Mykolayivna

Ph.D. of Economics

Associate Professor of the Department of economics and information technologies of the Lviv Institute of the University of Banking

Contacts: kvasnijmary@gmail.com

Webpages:

Resume

The main economic indicators of the budget of Ukraine are considered and the analysis of dynamics as a set of three components is proposed: changes in behavior, structure and taking into account external influences. The analysis of the dynamics of the revenue and expenditure parts of the State Budget of Ukraine in 2017 based on the use of base and chain growth rates and in comparison with 2013 (the period prior to military actions and reforms), it was established that the dynamics of the budget is nonlinear with a nonsmooth character – then comes down. The peculiarity of the dynamics is the growth of the amplitude of fluctuations, the reduction of periods of stability and the significant imbalance of indicators in September and December. The analysis of the structure of the revenue part of the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine showed its instability, which indicates instability of the tax policy with variable use of both tax and non-tax leverage. The presence of chaotic structural changes in the revenue side of the budget affects the stability of financing the expenditure part of the budget, which creates imbalances in fiscal policy. The dynamics of the income expense ratio varies from 0.62 to 0.99 in 2013 and from 0.58 to 1.53 in 2017, indicating a low level of budgeting efficiency and a budget deficit in 2013 and an increase in the effectiveness of budgeting and instability in 2017. The dynamics of the budget of Ukraine are influenced both by internal structural changes and the external environment. In order to characterize the dynamics of the environment, they are selected as indicators: GDP, average wages, consumer price index, and their impact on the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine. It was diagnosed that the dynamics of GDP is closely related to the dynamics of the revenue side of the budget, while the dynamics of the chain growth rate of the average wage and the consumer price index have a similar trend towards the dynamics of the chain growth rate of expenditures. Since the Ukrainian economy is under the influence of globalization, integration and transformation processes, and its dynamics is nonlinear, variable in terms of behavior and structure, the dynamics of the budget of Ukraine is similar.

Keywords:

budget of Ukraine, revenues, expenditures, coverage ratio, growth rate, structure, external influences, nonlinear dynamics

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