Senior Researcher, Scientific Secretary of the unit of the Department of problems of the real sector of regions' economy of the Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of NAS of Ukraine
The article analyzes the structure and dynamics of Ukraine's commodity exports in 2022 in monetary and weight terms by product groups and items. Exports fell in 19 out of 20 analyzed commodity groups. The structure of commodity exports of Ukraine in 2022 remained conditionally stable. Thus, the largest shares in the structure of commodity exports by commodity groups in 2021 and 2022 accounted for groups II. products of plant origin; III. 15 fats and oils of animal or vegetable origin; XV. low-value metals and products from them. The largest shares in the structure of Ukrainian exports in terms of product positions in 2022 and 2021 accounted for corn, wheat sunflower, safflower or cottonseed oil, and iron ores and concentrates. The article reveals that the dynamics and structure of exports by commodity items in monetary terms differ significantly from similar indicators in weight terms. This is explained by a significant difference between the cost of exporting raw materials and products of their processing. The export value of products of the iron ore and concentrates commodity item was 15.1 times lower than the export value of products of the pipes, tubes, and hollow, seamless profiles of ferrous metals commodity item in 2022 and 8.6 times in 2021. The author summarizes that the level of decline in Ukraine’s commodity exports in 2022 can be considered an economic achievement, taking into account the catastrophic challenges that the Ukrainian nation is struggling with, as well as in comparison with export trends in 2009 and 2014-2016. This was achieved thanks to the multifaceted, diplomatic, and organizational cooperation of the state and business, the work of the grain corridor, and the liberalization of trade with the EU. At the same time, it is worth emphasizing that the export of raw materials from a statist position constitutes the loss of potential economic benefits that could be obtained by processing these raw materials in the country.
Russia's full-scale military aggression has caused enormous damage to the industrial capacity of Ukraine, as the hostilities have mainly affected those regions where the manufacturing sector is most developed. The purpose of the article is to identify structural transformations in the industrial sector of Ukraine's economy caused by Russian armed aggression. Since 2014, the output structure of the Ukrainian processing industry has undergone drastic negative changes: the share of low-tech industries has increased, while the share of medium- and high-tech industries has decreased. The efficiency of the Ukrainian processing industry is significantly lower than in the EU countries: the share of gross value added in output in Ukraine in 2020 was 20%, while in Poland it was 27% and in Germany 35%. One of the key problems of the functioning of the industrial sector and the national economy, in general, is the high import dependence of medium- and high-tech industries (especially the machine-building industry), the share of imports in costs or intermediate consumption of which in 2020 averaged over 48%. The war affected the dynamics of industrial production in Ukraine - during 2022, the volume of sold industrial products decreased by 21.6%, in particular, the products of processing industries - by 31.5%. The largest drop (by 58%) was recorded in metallurgical production. At the same time, the volume of industrial products sold abroad decreased by 44.6%. The export orientation of the industrial sector of the economy, i.e. the share of products sold outside of Ukraine, decreased by 8.4 percentage points (or by 29.6%) over the period. The post-war recovery of industrial capacity should be based on innovation and long-term development prospects. Accordingly, the central place in the structure of the industrial sector of the national economy should be occupied by mechanical engineering and chemical and pharmaceutical industries. This involves the creation of enterprises of the highest level in terms of technologies, organization of production, quality of management, etc. It is also necessary to move to new forms of organization and location of enterprises, in particular, the formation of industrial clusters that will ensure competitive costs of products.
industry, production, efficiency, import dependence, structural transformation, development
The industry is an important sector of the economy that has the potential to significantly increase the GDP as it contains links with high value-added production, the growth of which provides solutions to a number of socio-economic issues. In particular, industry accounts for 24.1% of the employed population and 25.1% of Poland's gross value added. In addition, the industry is the center of the intersectoral relations of the country's economy. Thus, the importance of industry in the Polish economy highlights the need to assess the effectiveness of its operation. The purpose of the study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the industry efficiency in Poland and its regions according to the author's method. The study provides grounds for confirming the hypothesis of the existence of regional restructuring of Polish industry in the direction of potentially new industrial centers specialized in industrial production with higher innovation and economic and social efficiency. An economic evaluation of the efficiency of the industry in the regions of Poland is carried out according to the author's method. Its feature is a combination of indicators of the current (actual) state and dynamics. To comprehensively assess the efficiency of the industry in the regions, 24 stimulating indicators were selected, grouped into four groups, and summarized by an integrated indicator. In accordance with the data of the calculated generalized integrated indicator and using the method of k-means, all regions are divided into 3 groups: high, medium, and low efficiency. A comprehensive assessment of industrial activity at the meso level allowed us to distinguish two regional types of industry: old-industrial and potentially new-industrial regions. The first type, for the most part, was characterized by high values of the actual situation but low values for the dynamics. The second type of industry was characterized by opposite features: a relatively low share in the country's industry, low actual values of key indicators, but high positive dynamics of key indicators of economic activity of the industry – product innovation and productivity.
The elaboration of regional development strategies using the methodology of smart specialization is one of the most important areas of modern economics and economic practice. The aim of the article is to improve the methodological basis for selecting potential areas of smart specialization at the meso level based on the experience in regional strategizing. To achieve this goal, the article highlights the methodological approaches to the analysis of areas of smart specialization of Polish voivodeships. The article emphasizes that indicators that reflect innovation and socio-economic efficiency, competitiveness, and impact of each economic activity on economic development take the main place in the methodological approaches to assessing the areas of smart specialization of the regions of Poland and other EU countries. Potential niches of smart specialization are identified through a comprehensive analysis, which includes indicators that reflect the qualitative characteristics of each type of economic activity and are characterized by a high degree of objectivity. Indicators are mostly statistical, and surveys and expert opinions are involved in the analysis at the stages where they are relevant and have substantive value, complementing the statistics. Taking into account the approaches to the analysis of the smart specialization directions of the Polish voivodeships considered in the article will improve the methodological bases of the choice of potential smart specialization spheres of the regions of Ukraine. At the same time, the paper emphasizes that the methodological approaches to the analysis of areas of smart specialization used by Polish voivodeships, regions of other EU countries, as well as Ukraine, are not without drawbacks. In particular, a certain pattern in the choice of areas of smart specialization is the most characteristic negative feature of the vast majority of regional strategies.
regional strategies, smart specialization, types of economic activity, innovation
The light industry is an important inter-sectoral segment and a chain of individual production areas. The purpose of the article is to carry out a comparative assessment of the cross-sectoral linkages of light industry of Ukraine with some EU countries and to prepare relevant analytical conclusions. The research revealed that the largest consumers of light industry products in 2013-2017 in Ukraine were the industries that belonged to this type of industrial activity (textile, clothing, leather and other materials), as well as the trade, furniture industry, public administration, and defense. The key problem for the functioning of the Ukrainian light industry is its high import dependence. In particular, the share of imports in intermediate consumption of light industry of Ukraine in 2017 was almost 60%. The share of imports in the expenditures of the Ukrainian light industry was almost 49%. The production activities of light industry in Ukraine use products of many ECs, but the main suppliers of raw materials and components are: textile production, production of clothing, leather, and other materials; production of chemicals and chemical products; wholesale and retail trade; supply of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning. In 2017, these four sectors totaled 70.74%. The following types of industrial activity in Ukraine have a significant potential for increasing output: production of rubber and plastic products; production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers; production of other vehicles; public administration and defense; compulsory social security; health care and social assistance. The further development and improvement of the technological level of Ukrainian light industry products requires greater integration of the latter with the trade sector. However, the trade sector in Ukraine requires a thorough “unshadowing”, i.e. legalization of all operations.
The scale and deep heterogeneity of the national economy of Ukraine in the regional context make the relevance of scientific research in this thematic area. The purpose of the article is to determine the economic specialization of the regions of Ukraine by key economic activities contributing to the formation of gross value added, as well as outlining the potential risks to the national economy, taking into account the situation on world commodity markets. The results of the research showed that one of the consequences of the unstable dynamics of industrial production in Ukraine under the influence of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors is the reduction of industrial specialization of the economy of a number of Ukrainian regions. Thus, in 2017 the manufacturing was the leading economic activity (with the highest share in the gross value added created) in 11 regions, compared to 15 in 2012. So Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhya regions are considered to be “highly industrial”. At the same time, the agrarian specialization of the economy of Ukraine and its regions deepened – in 2017 agriculture became the leading type of economic activity in 11 regions (compared to 7 in 2012). The most “agrarian” in Ukraine (with a share of agriculture in gross value added over 30%) in 2017 became the Kherson, Kirovohrad and Khmelnytsky regions. Increasing the level of “agrarianization” of the national economy in the context of volatility of agricultural commodity prices on the world markets poses significant risks for the socio-economic development of Ukraine and its regions. These risks are exacerbated by the high amplitude of fluctuations in the volume and structure of domestic agricultural products and the low degree of processing of raw materials. To improve the structure of domestic commodity exports (in the direction of increasing its share of products with a higher degree of processing) and to deepen its diversification, a number of measures should be carried out aimed at stimulating export activity of enterprises (industrial and agro-industrial), carrying out technical and technological re-equipment of industrial and export production bases, creation of new high-tech industries on the basis of the implementation of powerful innovation and investment projects.
economic specialization, industry, agriculture, structure, gross value added, export
In the article, a comparative interregional and cross-border assessment of socio-economic development of the Transcarpathian region is conducted. The results of the study are based on an analysis of the level and dynamics of such key indicators of economic and social development of the region as GRP per capita, employment rate, unemployment rate, average monthly salary, etc. According to the results of interregional comparisons, the low level of efficiency of the economy but the positive dynamics of some indicators of the labor market of the Transcarpathian region was revealed. In particular, among the regions of Ukraine in 2013-2017, the region was 22nd in terms of GRP per capita and 19th in terms of employment. At the same time, by unemployment, it rose from 15th in 2013 to 10th in 2018, and the average monthly wage ranged from 20th to 7th, respectively. Cross-border comparisons showed a significant lag behind the Transcarpathian region from the neighboring regions of Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary for all considered socio-economic indicators. Thus, in particular, according to the indicator of GRP per capita, this lag compared to the Kosice region (Slovakia) in 2017 was 11.4 times. The average monthly salary in Transcarpathian region is 4 times lower than in the neighboring Kosice and Presov regions of Slovakia and the Podkarpackie voivodship of Poland. The positive dynamics in the direction of reducing the above-mentioned gaps in the level of socio-economic development of the analyzed regions in 2017-2018 are revealed. In addition, a regional peculiarity has been identified – the Transcarpathian region and the regions it borders, lag substantially behind the countries they belong to by the level of socio-economic development. As a result, the conclusion is drawn that the results of the conducted inter-regional and transboundary assessment of the socio-economic development of the Transcarpathian region will facilitate the development of inter-regional and interstate programs and strategies for the development of the Carpathian transboundary region to eliminate the identified imbalances.
A trade, along with industry and agriculture, is among the main types of economic activity in Ukraine, with one of the largest shares in gross value added – 15.7 per cent in 2016 (vs. 16.9 in 2014). The key indicator of the development of trade is the index of the physical volume of the retail trade. It indirectly reflects the purchasing power of the population, the level of supply and demand balance for consumer goods by price and quantitative parameters, the socio-economic situation of the country or the regions. The latter proves the role of trade as a socially important segment of the national economy. The purpose of the article is to assess the dynamics of development indicators and structure of retail commodity circulation in Ukraine in the context of food and non-food products and their origin. As the dynamics of the index of physical volume of retail trade turnover showed, in 2017, the trade grew in Ukraine after its fall in 2012-2015 as a result of the influence of monetary and non-monetary factors. The positive value of the index of physical volume of retail trade turnover was reached in 20 regions vs. none in 2015. There were changes in the structure of retail turnover. The predominance of growth in the sales of food products for non-food products in 2017 was recorded in 11 regions vs. two in 2016 and 23 in 2014. In the regional structure of Ukraine’s retail trade turnover (in terms of value terms), in 2017 the highest shares were occupied by Dnipropetrovsk (11.0 per cent), Kharkiv (9.86%) and Odesa (9.56%) regions. There was a reduction in the weight of trade in the national economy – its share in gross value added in 2016 amounted to 15.7 per cent vs. 16.7 in 2012. The decrease in indicator occurred in twenty two regions, of which the most significant (more than 5 percentage points, pp.) – in Donetsk, Transcarpathian, Lugansk and Lviv. Ukraine is characterized by the tendency towards the constant increase in the share of imports in the retail trade turnover. During 2005-2017 the growth of this indicator amounted to 18.2 pp., in particular, food products – 8.7 pp. and nonfood – 25.0 pp. Among the regions in 2017, the highest share (more than 50 per cent) of the share of imports in the retail trade turnover was in the Vinnytsia and Odesa regions, while the lowest (more then 40%) was in Sumy, Chernihiv and Kirovograd regions. The further author’s research will be devoted to further analysis of the trends and the search for the effective mechanisms for the implementation of the state policy of import substitution.
index of physical volume of retail commodity turnover, structure, food and non-food products, trade, share of imports in retail trade turnover
Given the fact that the products of the processing industry dominate in the structure of import of Ukrainian goods and services, it becomes necessary to study the dependence of the Ukrainian economy on this type of industrial production. To this end, an assessment of the dependence of the Ukrainian economy on imports of intermediate products of manufacturing industries was made. The data of the tables «input-output» is the information base for such an assessment. According to the results of the calculations, a high level (> 45%) of the dependence of the Ukrainian consumer market on imports of industrial goods was revealed. In 2016, over 70% of final consumption of products of 9 out of 16 manufacturing industries in Ukraine was secured by imports. The highest import dependence in final consumption was peculiar to the goods of high- and medium technology intensive industries (81.08% and 73.62% respectively), and more than 90% of need for consumer goods of two production sectors (computers and vehicles) belonging to these groups, was secured by import. In addition, the import dependence on end-use goods and some middle-and low-tech industries (production of rubber and plastic products, textile production, clothing, leather and other materials, furniture production, and other products) was critically high (> 80%). Thus, the promising directions of import substitution in Ukraine are related primarily to the mentioned production and are analytically grounded. According to the results of the comparison of the structure of final consumption of domestic and imported products in the processing industry, the paper determines the availability of significant reserves for Ukrainian commodity producers in the direction of expanding their assortment, and thus filling new niches in the domestic market. This concerns, first of all, the production of machinery and equipment, other vehicles, computers, electronic and optical products, as well as chemical production. The author verifies the hypothesis that for the implementation of import substitution in the Ukrainian economy, it is necessary to carry out detailed calculations of the capacity of the target market segments (both internal and external), the volume of investments necessary for the organization of the corresponding production, their profitability and the payback period, as well as the number of newly created jobs for each of the identified directions.
dependence on imports, import substitution, final consumption, industrial production, processing industry
The state and level of functioning of construction as one of the system-forming sectors of the economy is an indicator of socio-economic development of the country. In view of this, the study of the specialization and trends of the construction sector in the economy of the regions of Ukraine in the period of transformational change and economic integration is relevant. The goal of the article is to study the trends of development and structural changes in the construction sector of the economy of the regions of Ukraine. To achieve this goal, changes were analyzed in the specialization of the construction of the regions of Ukraine in 2012-2017 and the volume of construction products. The changes in the specialization of the construction sector of the region's economy were studied by analyzing the structure of the construction products of the regions and the regional structure of Ukraine's construction. In the specialization of the regions of Ukraine by type of construction in 2017, as compared to 2012, the number of areas where construction of buildings predominated has increased (from 10 in 2012 to 15 in 2017), while the number of areas with predominance of specialization on the construction of engineering structures has decreased. The regional structure of Ukraine's construction in the analyzed period was low-digitized. The construction sector of the economy of Odessa, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions in 2017 totaled 38.6% of Ukraine's construction. The development trends of the construction sector of the economy of Ukrainian regions have been investigated through the analysis of construction industry indices in general and in the context of the main types of construction products. The analysis of construction product indices showed a rapid growth of construction in Ukraine in general and the vast majority of its regions in 2016 and 2017. The growth of the index of construction products in general in 2017 took place in 21 oblast - against 9 in 2015. The positive value of the index (> 100%) in the growth of buildings in 2017 was reached in 19 oblasts - against 14 in 2015, and engineering structures - 19 versus 11, respectively. As a result, the study concluded that the challenges of 2012-2015 caused a negative impact on the functioning of the construction sector in the regions of Ukraine. However, the improvement of the macroeconomic and investment climate in the country, as well as the effective implementation of regional development programs in 2016-2017, contributed to the rapid growth of construction in most areas and increased diversification in the area of specialization and regional structure.
construction, index of construction products, buildings, engineering structures, structure
The comparative estimation of functioning of the industry in Ukraine and Poland in the period of 2011-2016 years is carried out. According to the results of the analysis, the predominance of the industrial sector of Polish economy (compared to the similar sector of Ukrainian economy), efficiency and innovation is explained. The ways of eliminating the weaknesses of the industry of Ukraine, in particular, in the direction of increasing financial-economic activity and the level of implementation of innovations in production, are offered. The most important competitive advantages of Polish industry were determined by the indicators of economic efficiency (profitability of operating activities, assets and turnover), resource efficiency (labor productivity) and innovation activity (the share of enterprises that introduced innovations in the total number of industrial enterprises, the share of implemented innovative products in the total volume of industrial production sales and the share of expenses on innovations in the total volume of capital investments).
industry, activity, efficiency, innovations, capital investment, industrial production
Citations
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УКР
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